The Future of Xbox

 

So the fated date has come and gone and Xbox have revealed their grand plan to slowly destroy any competitive edge they ever had in the industry in a slow wind-down to getting rid of their console altogether. And sure, that isn't how this was presented- but that is merely because saying such out loud would cause a panic. But let's be honest, what else would be the reason for going the direction that they are going in? Remember, out of all the big three that are scared of consoles becoming obsolete, Microsoft are the ones who literally own the majority of the PC market. All they have to do is start working on beefing up their online Microsoft store to not be utterly atrocious. (Treating game files like App files and locking them away in hidden systems folders is so painfully out of touch it isn't even funny.) This is how it happens, this is how the Xbox man dies.

It was already leaked well in advance that Xbox was looking at bringing some of their exclusive games to other consoles in an attempt to double dip their popularity. At the time fears were abound for some of the big platform identity holders making the jump, but whether because the backlash came from a calculated leak and the team decided to pull back, or simply because people ran out of control- such plans were not revealed to the public. Yet. But bare in mind- that is the only direction that this could possibly go. You don't start handing out console exclusives only to start and stop with the four announced today. This is a precedent set by the person in the weakest position to try and manifest a reality that only they see for the future of the industry. One day, Halo is going to at least be on the negotiating table with Sony.

As for the four games? Microsoft were quick to try and downplay their importance whilst softening the field for the next pitch of much more consequential heavy hitters somewhere down the line. The stipulations were piled on top of one another- these are older games from more than a year ago since their launch- they're already reached their 'community potential' in the eyes of Microsoft and can't pick up significant traction on their own anymore. (Maybe give them a promotional boost on GamePass then, I dunno.) Oh, and then there's the headscratching claim that some of these games were 'never meant to be exclusive'- which sounds like crap to me. So what, you forgot to port them to other consoles until just today? Did someone file the port request to the wrong office? Nah, this is just some gaslighting, isn't it?

According to reporting from the Verge the games we are looking at start with Hi-Fi Rush- something of an underground hit which sparked the first serious interest in this new era of Xbox exclusives when it launched the same day as the inaugural Microsoft Bethesda conference. A testament to the long time prospect of that exclusive partnership, now being pimped out to Sony and probably Nintendo for a quick buck. (Great look, guys.) Then there's the very niche 'Pentiment', second game developed by current in-house Microsoft developer 'Obsidian'. Not really sure if this one has a big future on Playstation, felt like a game more directed towards a PC audience to me- but who knows- maybe the lacklustre sells will find a pertinent boost from the novelty of playing a strict Xbox exclusive alone. Sea of Thieves is a big one- a giant ecosystem-game with a healthy community made by an Xbox partner of over a decade- now a pawn in a bigger game. Oh, and Obsidian's other exclusive Xbox title, Grounded- basically making every bit of Xbox value the company had generated since their purchase utterly moot. Good job, team.

Now those of us with delusional syndrome have breathed a sigh of relief at all of this news. Taking solace from the fact that Xbox promised only 'small games' would ever be in consideration of being ported over. But here's the thing- Xbox has no 'big' exclusives aside from Starfield. This year's Indiana Jones is going to be their second big exclusive in half a console generation- they don't have the weight to throw around like they seem eager to pretend that they do. With this new medium an Xbox exclusivity deal is going to become as worthless as an Epic Games exclusivity deal- because nobody third party is going to sell off their big AAA exclusive game and all medium developers simply need to weigh up if the Microsoft payday is enough to cover that first year of minimal sales before it's handed off to the real markets. Xbox will never develop a worthwhile buyer base again.

Now for their defence, Microsoft think that they're stepping ahead of the curve with this decision. In the mind of the Xbox hierarchy they believe that console exclusivity is on the way out and they're simply leading the charge by example- but who's going to tell that to Sony? Sony have the market completely in their grasp, Nintendo maintains their niche- neither platform holds anything to gain from giving their games to the Xbox marketplace. In fact, both would lose everything in an ecosystem where consoles dissolve entirely in the wake of computers. Xbox is betting their weight on a future that only they want- forgetting how outnumbered they are on the board- which essentially sums up to the company pushing themselves out of the market.

If you want ironclad confirmation that this is going to rock the game development world- just look no further than Ubisoft. In an unsolicited comment on the goings-on, a Ubisoft executive offhandedly remarked that if Xbox were to start going multiplatform it wouldn't have a significant effect on the market. Which executive said this? Yves Guillemot. Now, barring for a moment the fact that the guy is a pathological liar- he's also chief of a company renowned for being guided by the least intelligent, unintuitive backwards worms of creation- evolutionary rejects bred in the recesses of the Paris Catacombs since the neolithic age and dragged out into the light to run the most backwards game developer into the ground. If they say that Xbox isn't going to change the balance of the market, you can bet it's going to rock the industry foundation to it's core.

So peering past the pomp and circuses, wiping that Microsoft-branded cake crumbs off your mouth and looking at the whole picture- it's easy to see what is really going on here. Microsoft is battling over how it's wants to monetise itself which is leading to these inane decisions that foster not confidence, but profitability. Who cares about sustainability when I have the chance to effect a boost in revenue in my age? And after that scuffle is wound down, will there be anything left worthy of choosing an Xbox over? Playstation won't surrender it's exclusivities- so all the Xbox will be is a console for beta-testing Microsoft studio games before they get perfected and ported to the Playstation- turning one-time industry players into witless masterless cattle. And as for Sony and Nintendo? With a little bravado, maybe tomorrow they'll strike atop the heap. Nature abhors a power vacuum, the future of Xbox belongs to them.