Harry Potter: Wizards Retire

 Hate to say I told you so...

I've finally done it, ladies and gentlemen, I've kept this blog going for so long that I've totally outlived a game from inception to death. And, to sweeten the pot, I went full Nostradamus and even predicted that this game would do poorly, and or, crash and burn without catching even a sliver of the fame that Niantic expected for the title. But then who am I to judge? I'm just some silly little Internet guy with manic depressive episodes, suicidal proclivities and a computer so horribly outdated I can barely run the early access for Baldur's Gate 3. Truly I am at the bottom of the rung of sources anyone would go to in order to spy the good word about where the winds of the market might trend. Except, hah! I did it this time, and let it be known to all that Harry Potter Wizards Unite proved itself a pale embarrassment and is due for the chopping block on January 2022. Okay, now I'm done gloating I can be sad, because Harry Potter Wizards Unite is being shut down.

Yes, the impermanence of online video games and the general gaming market has reared it's shaggy, lacksidasical mane in order to remind us once more that everything we know will one day cease to be. And that day creeps ever closer with profit driven enterprises in charge of keeping the plug going. (Thanks, Sony.) I've tasted this bitter spring in a very personal sense with the failure of Elder Scrolls Legends still nudging at my ankles just that little bit, and so I do feel bad for those that genuinely played and loved this title. (I know you're out there, you just weren't enough it seems.) Because, you see, it's not about finding that niche little gem that few others have heard about with games like this, but being abreast of the next big thing and personally supporting it's development whilst hoping thousands of others are doing the same or more than you, otherwise you may one day end up with no game. What a really crappy burden to lay upon the audience, but thus is what we sign up to with this live-service world.

And I suppose I even feel just that little bit bad for Niantic, although that's more so directed towards anyone who might be on the line for losing their job because of this direction change, not for the millionaire CEO's who made a bad bet and lost big on it. They truly believed that in Harry Potter they'd discovered the next evergreen franchise to eclipse Pokémon, even going to far as to gloat about the size of the Harry Potter brand in relation to Pokémon. At the time I addressed this particular point and poured some heavy doubt on the whole assertion, how could it be that Harry Potter is more popular than Pokémon, I mean it's big but I can't think of a single figure that backs those words up. Of course, I overruled myself under the idea that this is a big company and they must have more idea about this like this than I do. (We can see what all that experience was worth, huh.) But now I am left with my own speculation.

What exactly was it about Harry Potter that didn't translate other to the world of Go-like games? The game tried to bring that style of alternate reality gameplay and grabbed tight onto the iconic imagery of the Harry Potter novels, it even tied itself in with the main lore of the series, setting itself after the graduation of the three protagonists and following the works of the Ministry of Magic that they helped shape. (Totally ignoring the fact that the app didn't come up with anything original beyond that premise and spent the whole time theming events around characters and events from the book. I'm sure there's an in-game explanation, I just don't care) There's even an ongoing movie franchise that is expanding upon the world of Harry Potter right now, and which has hit several development bumps which has delayed it into obscurity, but this still should be a ripe time for expanded universe Harry Potter stuff.

First of all I'd like to tackle the size of the Harry Potter audience, because Niantic were in no way wrong in their assertions that this series is vast. J.K.Rowling is the most successful modern writer in her field and the movies form such core staples of many people's childhoods that now millennial parents are introducing their own children to them. (I'm sure someone out there finds that sweet) But here's the thing, that audience, is the wrong audience for gaming. I mean sure, there's going to be some crossover between people who play games and those that like Harry Potter, I'm a member of that particular sample size, but they aren't intrinsically linked. At it's heart Pokemon is a game series and maintains that entertainment angle to every medium it touches, therefore when making an accessible mobile game it makes sense to dream big about snatching up as much of the active Pokemon fanbase as possible. With Harry Potter that just doesn't cleanly translate, those people might show up for another book, would definitely show up to a movie, (that's the only reason why Fantastic Beasts 1 did well enough to warrant a sequel despite being duller than igneous rocks) but a mobile game? Why assume the majority of Harry Potter fans are on board with that? From the beginning Niantic's assumptions were beyond overly optimistic.

Then there's the big one, and this is a common story you see across this industry and many other but that doesn't mean I have to understand or like it: this style of game was directly competing with Pokémon Go. When it comes to collectathon ARG games that demand your daily obedience, most people can't really find the space in their life for two, because there just aren't that many hours in the day and these games are so time consuming. (Which is one of the many reasons why the live service game model is unsustainable, but that's another topic entirely) Thus this game wasn't going to have a clean route to success from the getgo due to the plain fact that Niantic were already hogging their own prospective market with Pokemon Go. People who were playing that weren't just going to up-and-switch to 'Wizards Unite', they'd spent up to three years carefully gathering and curating their squad of Pocket Monsters, why give that up for Wizard stuff? I'm sure some out there could manage both, but most will have to pick one or the other and Pokemon Go had a real head start. And when we consider Harry Potter fans who are gamers and also like and play Pokemon Go (A very likely intersection in the Venn diagram due to the fact that both Pokemon and Harry Potter blew up for the same generation) then we end up even further delineating the pool of potential active players that this game was ever even capable of snagging on it's very best day.   

And finally there's the rug-pull kicker. The sour truth that we all really know but don't like saying out loud to one another. Harry Potter just ain't as big as you think. At least, it isn't really anymore. Unlike Pokemon, which has persisted and morphed to hit subsequent generations with a steady stream of games, TV show and regular seasons of trading cards, Harry Potter has just sort of shrivelled in the years since the last movie of the main series. It's still hugely successful and popular, mind, but it's nowhere near as actively popular that it's mere name might attract hungry masses. The Fantastic Beasts movies was met with initial curiosity that steadily dwindles with each underwhelming entry, J.K. Rowling's abrasive online personality makes it gradually less desirable for social media active fans to talk about Harry Potter and the lack of any other substantial content is hurting the series' staying power. Hogwarts Unite wasn't so much riding off the back of a redhot franchise as it was trying to stoke the cooling coals into a raging fire once again, and if they'd approach this game with that idea to mind, maybe Niantic would have spent more time creating something unique, which doesn't tread on their own shoes, and which was appropriately marketed to the masses as the next big release from the Wizarding world. Alas, shoulda coulda woulda.

What we're left with is a roadbump of an online game that is so easily tossed aside by history that the recent announcement of a Pikmin Niantic game was initially heralded with headlines like 'The first new game from Niantic since Pokemon Go'. Those are games journalists that just the other day erased this game from their own memory, keeping track of this stuff is meant to be their job! (But then, Games Journalists aren't exactly renowned for their... quality) Outside facing press has Niantic painting this as a logical next step that they planned from the beginning ("Not all games are meant to last forever. We accomplished... delivering a two-year narrative story arc that will soon be complete.") but considering that in the same breath they're talking about 'no refunds' and are taking this app off the store immediately, it's no secret that this wasn't the way the team wanted things to go. Here's hoping that Niantic learn from this lesson and the rest of the industry takes this as a teaching mo- Huh? Well, the Pikmin game might be charming enough to get a small fan base at- oh, there's the Fnaf Mobile AR game I guess- urg, and the Witcher one. You know what? There's no hope for any of us. Crappy doomed Live services will be popping up for ever more.

The case of Pokemon vs Harry Potter

Judge Niantic presiding...

A couple years back a mobile game came out, a little title called: Pokemon GO. You heard of that? Back in 2016 it was something of a killer app. It was a title that managed to amass a respectable $207 million in it's first month and accounted for 45% of play time out of the top 20 android games for its first 3 months. At its peak, Pokemon Go boasted daily worldwide player of 45 million. So it comes to the surprise of no one, that Go's masterminds: Niantic, are oh-so eager to recapture their runaway success with their next project. Which is essentially the exact same idea attached to a different brand. That's the mobile market for you.

In their defense, I would be attempting the same thing in their shoes. Pokemon GO was nothing short of a global cultural phenomena when in launched. All over the world we heard stories surrounding the crazy lengths people would go to in order to get their mitts on the virtual battle beasts. Stories of fan causing stampedes in Taipei, a Go streamer getting mugged at midnight in central park, and even one about a Russian YouTuber who got sentenced to a suspended 3 year sentence for playing the game in a church. The level of proliferation that Pokemon Go reached was unprecedented, even for a franchise known for bleeding into the mainstream more than once before. Even people who would, ideally, never cross paths with Pokemon in their entire lives ended up getting in on the action. Who remembers when Hillary Clinton chanted "Pokemon Go-to-the-polls" In the middle of her election campaign or when Donald Trump commented about how he would like to play the game but just didn't have the time. It was like the entire world went mad.

Nowadays, things have settled down and mobile app stats are being led by King's: Candy Crush Saga, once again. Balance had been restored to the universe. However, Niantic are not done yet. They want to have a second shot at capturing a bottleful of lightning. 'Harry Potter: Wizards Unite' is their next big venture, leaning off another popular young adult franchise in order to sink in it's appeal. It is a sound business move for Warner Bros too, as they are still in the middle of their 'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them' series and have started trying to drum up interest for a potential Harry Potter TV series. It only makes sense for them to try their hand at roping in fans from the world's most profitable entertainment medium, doesn't it. But will a Harry Potter-Pokemon Go clone really strike the world by storm as much as Niantic's first outing?

CEO John Hanke seems to think so. Although, I couldn't find the interview myself, I watched Alex, from YouTube's AngryJoeShow, claim that Hanke said "Harry Potter is a bigger franchise in terms of global awareness and fan base to Pokemon". Perhaps this is why Niantic thought that this would be their next ARG mobile best seller? I do find such an assumption interesting because, even if he was just paying lip service for the interview, it remains the most insight we have into the thought process of Niantic. I, for one, have to disagree with him on this particular quote. I believe that, despite the inherent difficulty with comparing movie and book fans beside video game and TV fans, Pokemon is still by and large a much bigger franchise in just about every way. But lets take a closer look just to make sure.

The sure-fire, investor approved, method for testing franchise viability is a taking a look at how much total revenue that brand has amassed. This can be a helpful statistic in establishing how many people care enough to spend money on your products alongside how savvy your team is at wringing them dry. In this department, it seems that things are pretty much cut and dry. According to Wikipedia, Harry Potter is the third largest media franchise in the world with a total revenue of $25 billion since inception in 1997; unfortunately for Potter fans, the number one franchise in the world is still Pokemon with an eye watering, $55 billion total revenue. Pokemon easily surpasses Harry Potter in money making potential, whilst having only been around for one year more. Also neither franchise appears to be slowing down, Pokemon is in good standing in the world of gaming as has been for over 2 decades now; and as I've said before, gaming is the most lucrative form of entertainment. J.K. Rowling's series can't really compare in that department.

Now lets look at reception. I think it is safe to say that Pokemon is beloved with its fan base, new and old. How else would they be able to get away with the same cheap, two-game game, marketing ploy that they've been pushing for the last 20 years. Fans respect Pokemon and, despite some recent discontent, will continue to do so, going forward. Pokemon is just too big and integrated with such vertically that no single disappointment from one of it's releases is going to sully the larger brand. Harry Potter is different. Starting off as solely a book series before becoming solely a movie series,(There was a little period of crossover somewhere) Harry Potter has never had as many eggs in the basket as Pokemon does. Kind of impressive if you think about it in terms of how successful it has become, but provably risky. Fans have grown tired over the past few years with the comments Rowling as made as well the general milking of the franchise. So far, 'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them' has seemed a little aimless and shaky. Heck, 30 minutes of the first movie was dedicated to chasing around CGI monsters. (Which, on a side note, where really poorly designed. Someone on Warner Bros. design department needs to give the guys who work on Monster Hunter a call.) 'Crimes of Grindlewald' really reflected the lack of audience interest when it generated a franchise low domestic take of $62.2 million on it's opening. Does this mean the Harry Potter is trending downwards. Yes, statistically. We'll have to wait and see if an in-universe TV series helps to shake things up.

Then there is the difficult to measure statistic of cultural impact. I could lay down a ton of incidental evidence on this subject, like how Harry Potter never had it own trading card game or never caused seizures throughout japan (allegedly.) But the truth is that I just don't keep enough tabs on Harry Potter news to provide an impartial prospective. What is impartial, however, are numbers. And just like Shakira's 2005 hips; they don't lie. Google trends seems to show that; as of the release of Pokemon go, 'Pokemon' has been a more popular search term than 'Harry Potter', despite 'Crimes of Grindlewald' being released in 2018. I may be a tad biased for the fuzzy electric rodent and his friends but It's hard to deny, Harry Potter does not ring with the same resonance that Pokemon does. It makes you wonder just what on earth John Hanke is talking about.

Don't misconstrue this to think that I hate Harry Potter or anything, Harry Potter was a huge part of my childhood. The only thing I've ever won, was a school competition for which the reward was a collection of the first five potter books, and since then I have been a fan of the wizarding world. However, since then I have also discovered so many other fantastic, well designed fictional worlds, and I can see just how weak Harry Potter's world building is by comparison. Don't believe me? Name one wizarding job that graduates can move onto that is neither school related or a ministry official. Quidditch star? Quidditch star announcer? Quidditch Cheerleader? Harry Potter lacks the depth to support deep dives into its lore, which is why Fantastic Beasts feels so shallow and why Niantic's 'Harry Potter: Wizards Unite' only bought in $1 million in it's opening weekend.

For me I suppose I grew out of Harry Potter after 'The Deathly Hallows'. And before the movies finished, seeing as how I still haven't seen 'The Deathly Hallows Part 2'. I approached the prequels with some interest but after the mess that was 'The Crimes of Grindlewald', I feel I've gone off that too. Pokemon is just so much easier to love and weirdly timeless. It's games are simple and fun, it's show is watchable and the card game is... hopelessly broken, but 2/3 ain't bad. Niantic are naive if they truly believe they can recapture the success of Pokemon Go; and honestly, they shouldn't even try. A lot of amazing things sprung from the days of Pokemon Go but a lot of negativity has too. Remember that mugging I mentioned, or that arrest? There are so many others. One man quit his job to 'Go' full time and another's infidelity was discovered due to the game's GPS feature. My favourite is a man who nearly lost his job when he was caught playing it and the company assumed he was selling company secrets. Whenever anything reaches that level of proliferating into the mainstream it is bound to track a lot of feces behind it. Niantic doesn't need that kind of heat coming down on them again. They're a small (Or rather were small) mobile development company who struck gold but ,for some reason, are still digging. My unsolicited advice, be happy with what you have and careful not to choke on your aspirations.